Monday, November 3, 2008

Polls and the Bradley Effect

...also known as "Vote, you idiot!"


I've been looking at this for 2 weeks now. The best I can figure is that one of two things is going to happen. Either Obama has fooled everyone and wins in a landslide. Or, enough people wake up and we have something like that map in the link above. I am hoping for the latter.

If you do as I did and research the "Wilder Effect", subsequently known as the "Bradley Effect", you will find out something interesting. Namely, that people lie to pollsters. Specifically, they lie to pollsters about their level of support for Liberal African-American Democrats.

This works both ways.

In heavily African-American communities, respondents understate their support for the candidate for fear of appearing that race is the only reason that they are for him. In more cosmopolitan communities, people overstate their support to pollsters for the candidate in order to appear more tolerant.

How will this break for THIS liberal Democrat candidate? Too soon to tell. It will really all come down to turnout in the swing states.

Just like always.

The map I linked to was based upon the polls as of 10/20 or 10/21. Well before the news broke about the L.A. Times story suppression on Rashid Khalidi. Well before the news leaked that S.F. Chronicle squashed a little tidbit from Obama about his being perfectly comfortable bankrupting the Coal industry in America through Cap and Trade. The map assumes that any poll that shows Obama ahead within the margin of error OR by less than 11% overall is actually going to be a state that McCain wins.

Sounds screwy doesn't it?

I thought so too until 10/31 when Rush Limbaugh broke some leaks from inside the Obama campaign. Those leaks stated that basically the Obama camp is NOT going to count a state as won unless the polls show a lead by greater than 10%. They are worried about the Bradley Effect too.

I will be in line when the polls open on 11/4. Then I am going to go to the local McCain headquarters in Fredericksburg and volunteer to help get out the vote.

It isn't over yet.



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